Slatery field notes / sports research / guided learning

How to compare different sample windows

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Two averages that do not yet belong side by side

01Receiver A25 yards

Average across the latest four appearances

02Receiver B20 yards

Average across the latest six appearances

Invented receiving records. A uses four appearances; B uses six, so the windows differ.

A looks higher until you check which games each number includes.

1
THE IDEA

A comparison starts with matching the question.

You see Receiver A averaging 25 yards and Receiver B averaging 20. A looks ahead. Then you notice A's number uses the latest four appearances, while B's uses six. You haven't compared the same slice of their records.

A sample window tells you which observations were selected. “Last four games,” “last thirty days” and “whole season” can select different records. Even the same phrase can count team games or player appearances differently.

Different windows aren't automatically wrong. One might be useful for studying a recent role change, another for describing a longer history. The problem is presenting their difference as if the window choice doesn't matter.

2
WORKED EXAMPLE

Match both players to the latest four appearances.

In this invented example, both players’ latest four appearances cover the same dates. A’s receiving totals are 22, 26, 18 and 34 yards. That is 100 yards in four appearances, or 25 per appearance.

B's latest four are 28, 28, 28 and 28: 112 yards, averaging 28. Their two earlier appearances had four yards each. Include those earlier eight yards and the six-appearance total becomes 120, averaging 20.

Now the original comparison makes sense. B's 20 came from a longer window that included two low-output appearances. Across the same recent four, B averages 28 and A averages 25. The ranking reverses because the question changed.

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The matched recent window changes the picture

01Receiver A25yards per appearance

(22 + 26 + 18 + 34) ÷ 4

02Receiver B28yards per appearance

(28 + 28 + 28 + 28) ÷ 4

Invented receiving totals; both values use four player appearances over the same dates.

Matched windows make the comparison easier to interpret.

3
READ THE RECORD

Keep the earlier games visible.

B's longer average isn't an error. The earlier games belong in the six-appearance question. The recent four-game value simply describes a narrower part of the same history.

Don't silently replace the longer value and imply it was incorrect. Name both measures if both are useful: 20 across six appearances, 28 across the latest four. Then explain why the recent window matters to your question.

If the source says “last four team games,” check whether the player appeared in all four. An inactive game and an unavailable game record are different from a recorded zero-yard performance. The window label alone may not settle that detail.

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Receiver B’s six-appearance record

01Two earlier appearances4 + 4 yards

8 yards total

02Latest four appearances28 + 28 + 28 + 28

112 yards total

03All six appearances120 ÷ 6 = 20

A longer-window average

Invented receiving history; the four recent appearances are inside the six-appearance window.
4
PUT IT TO USE

Match the unit and metric as well as the dates.

After matching the window, read the units. Receiving yards per appearance isn't the same as receiving yards per target. In baseball, a pitch-specific contact value isn't automatically comparable with a full offensive metric that includes walks and strikeouts.

Check the source and filters too. Two providers may use different definitions. A postseason-only window can exclude games that a recent-game window includes. Keep those choices attached to the numbers.

A clear comparison names the measurement, window and count for both sides. When those differ, say why. The goal is to explain a useful difference, not create one by mixing incompatible records.

Sources and further reading