The Slate Sheet: NHL Edges for October 1, 2026
NHL research for October 1, 2026: shot-volume surges, back-to-back spots, power-play mismatches and goalie form, with the sample behind every number.
The NHL spots worth your attention for Thursday, October 1, 2026. We scan every game for shot volume that ice time backs up, tired-legs schedule spots, special-teams mismatches and goalie form, and only the clear outliers make the sheet.
- Canucks power play (38.6%) vs a 70.2% kill
- Ryan Hartman: 4.2 shots a game over his last 5
- Goalie gap: Luukkonen .880 vs Talbot .810
- Flyers on a back-to-back. Devils are rested.
- Steven Stamkos: 4.2 shots a game over his last 5
- Dylan Guenther: 4.6 shots a game over his last 5
- Clayton Keller: 3.8 shots a game over his last 5
- Nikita Kucherov: 4.2 shots a game over his last 5
- Goalie gap: Wolf .904 vs Daccord .860
NHL · Pp Mismatch
Canucks power play (38.6%) vs a 70.2% kill
Oilers at Canucks · Puck drop 10:00 PM EDT
League norms sit near 21% on the power play and 79% on the kill. This one is hot on one side and leaky on the other.
| Measure | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Canucks power play | 38.6% | Conversion rate · last 20 games |
| Oilers penalty kill | 70.2% | Kill rate · last 20 games |
Sample: Last 20 team games.
Last-20 samples can include 2025-26 games. Penalty counts swing nightly.
Slatery NHL special-teams report · source slate 2026-10-01. Open the full NHL report
NHL · Shot Surge
Ryan Hartman: 4.2 shots a game over his last 5
Wild at Predators · Puck drop 8:00 PM EDT
Up from 2.4 across 85 games, with 3.7 more minutes a night. A shot line built on the long average is behind him.
| Measure | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4.2 SOG | Shots on goal per game |
| Since Sep 2025 | 2.4 SOG | Shots on goal per game · 85 games |
Sample: Last 5 games vs since Sep 2025.
Early-season windows can include 2025-26 games. Deployment can change nightly.
Slatery NHL player-form report · source slate 2026-10-01. Open the full NHL report
NHL · Goalie Gap
Goalie gap: Luukkonen .880 vs Talbot .810
Sabres at Blue Jackets · Puck drop 7:00 PM EDT
Luukkonen has been the wall; Talbot has been leaking. Prices lean on the logo. This is last week's crease.
| Measure | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | .880 SV% | Sabres · last 5 appearances |
| Cam Talbot | .810 SV% | Blue Jackets · last 5 appearances |
Sample: Last 5 appearances.
Projected starters. Confirm the goalie before puck drop.
Slatery NHL goalie report · source slate 2026-10-01. Open the full NHL report
NHL · Schedule Spot
Flyers on a back-to-back. Devils are rested.
Flyers at Devils · Puck drop 7:00 PM EDT
Second night of a back-to-back against a team with 3+ days off. Tired legs, and often the backup in net.
| Measure | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Flyers rest | 0 days | Second night of a back-to-back |
| Devils rest | 3+ | Days off before tonight |
| Flyers fatigue | 95 /100 | Slatery fatigue index |
Sample: Schedule entering tonight.
Starting goalies are confirmed close to puck drop. Rest is context, not a result.
Slatery NHL fatigue report · source slate 2026-10-01. Open the full NHL report
NHL · Shot Surge
Steven Stamkos: 4.2 shots a game over his last 5
Wild at Predators · Puck drop 8:00 PM EDT
Up from 2.5 across 81 games, with 2.5 more minutes a night. A shot line built on the long average is behind him.
| Measure | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4.2 SOG | Shots on goal per game |
| Since Sep 2025 | 2.5 SOG | Shots on goal per game · 81 games |
Sample: Last 5 games vs since Sep 2025.
Early-season windows can include 2025-26 games. Deployment can change nightly.
Slatery NHL player-form report · source slate 2026-10-01. Open the full NHL report
NHL · Shot Surge
Dylan Guenther: 4.6 shots a game over his last 5
Blackhawks at Mammoth · Puck drop 9:30 PM EDT
Up from 3.2 across 84 games, with 5.5 more minutes a night. A shot line built on the long average is behind him.
| Measure | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4.6 SOG | Shots on goal per game |
| Since Sep 2025 | 3.2 SOG | Shots on goal per game · 84 games |
Sample: Last 5 games vs since Sep 2025.
Early-season windows can include 2025-26 games. Deployment can change nightly.
Slatery NHL player-form report · source slate 2026-10-01. Open the full NHL report
NHL · Shot Surge
Clayton Keller: 3.8 shots a game over his last 5
Blackhawks at Mammoth · Puck drop 9:30 PM EDT
Up from 2.8 across 87 games, with 6.1 more minutes a night. A shot line built on the long average is behind him.
| Measure | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3.8 SOG | Shots on goal per game |
| Since Sep 2025 | 2.8 SOG | Shots on goal per game · 87 games |
Sample: Last 5 games vs since Sep 2025.
Early-season windows can include 2025-26 games. Deployment can change nightly.
Slatery NHL player-form report · source slate 2026-10-01. Open the full NHL report
NHL · Shot Surge
Nikita Kucherov: 4.2 shots a game over his last 5
Lightning at Rangers · Puck drop 7:00 PM EDT
Up from 3.2 across 80 games, with 1.3 more minutes a night. A shot line built on the long average is behind him.
| Measure | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4.2 SOG | Shots on goal per game |
| Since Sep 2025 | 3.2 SOG | Shots on goal per game · 80 games |
Sample: Last 5 games vs since Sep 2025.
Early-season windows can include 2025-26 games. Deployment can change nightly.
Slatery NHL player-form report · source slate 2026-10-01. Open the full NHL report
NHL · Goalie Gap
Goalie gap: Wolf .904 vs Daccord .860
Kraken at Flames · Puck drop 9:00 PM EDT
Wolf has been the wall; Daccord has been leaking. Prices lean on the logo. This is last week's crease.
| Measure | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf | .904 SV% | Flames · last 5 appearances |
| Joey Daccord | .860 SV% | Kraken · last 5 appearances |
Sample: Last 5 appearances.
Projected starters. Confirm the goalie before puck drop.
Slatery NHL goalie report · source slate 2026-10-01. Open the full NHL report
How the sheet is built
Shot surges need both more shots and more ice time over the last five games, so a lucky week on a fourth line doesn't qualify. Rest spots compare a team on the second night of a back-to-back with an opponent coming off three or more days off. Special-teams notes use each team's last 20 games against league norms of roughly 21% on the power play and 79% on the kill.
Early in the season, these windows still include 2025-26 games. Each observation keeps its original numbers and source date; earlier observations stay readable after puck drop as a record of the pregame research, not live updates.
Keep researching
Make the next slate easier.
Read new editions here, or follow The Slate Sheet in your feed reader. A free account also opens the day’s selected reports.