The Slate Sheet: NHL Edges for October 2, 2026
NHL research for October 2, 2026: shot-volume surges, back-to-back spots, power-play mismatches and goalie form, with the sample behind every number.
The NHL spots worth your attention for Friday, October 2, 2026. We scan every game for shot volume that ice time backs up, tired-legs schedule spots, special-teams mismatches and goalie form, and only the clear outliers make the sheet.
- Mitch Marner: 3.6 shots a game over his last 5
- Rangers on a back-to-back. Red Wings are rested.
- Miro Heiskanen: 3.4 shots a game over his last 5
- Jason Robertson: 4.8 shots a game over his last 5
- Golden Knights power play (22.2%) vs a 64.4% kill
- Rangers power play (26.8%) vs a 72.7% kill
NHL · Shot Surge
Mitch Marner: 3.6 shots a game over his last 5
Ducks at Golden Knights · Puck drop 10:00 PM EDT
Up from 2.2 across 104 games, with 1.6 more minutes a night. A shot line built on the long average is behind him.
| Measure | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3.6 SOG | Shots on goal per game |
| Since Sep 2025 | 2.2 SOG | Shots on goal per game · 104 games |
Sample: Last 5 games vs since Sep 2025.
Early-season windows can include 2025-26 games. Deployment can change nightly.
Slatery NHL player-form report · source slate 2026-10-02. Open the full NHL report
NHL · Schedule Spot
Rangers on a back-to-back. Red Wings are rested.
Rangers at Red Wings · Puck drop 6:30 PM EDT
Second night of a back-to-back against a team with 3+ days off. Tired legs, and often the backup in net.
| Measure | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers rest | 0 days | Second night of a back-to-back |
| Red Wings rest | 3+ | Days off before tonight |
| Rangers travel | 481 miles | Since last game |
Sample: Schedule entering tonight.
Starting goalies are confirmed close to puck drop. Rest is context, not a result.
Slatery NHL fatigue report · source slate 2026-10-02. Open the full NHL report
NHL · Shot Surge
Miro Heiskanen: 3.4 shots a game over his last 5
Blues at Stars · Puck drop 9:00 PM EDT
Up from 2.0 across 82 games, with 4.1 more minutes a night. A shot line built on the long average is behind him.
| Measure | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3.4 SOG | Shots on goal per game |
| Since Sep 2025 | 2.0 SOG | Shots on goal per game · 82 games |
Sample: Last 5 games vs since Sep 2025.
Early-season windows can include 2025-26 games. Deployment can change nightly.
Slatery NHL player-form report · source slate 2026-10-02. Open the full NHL report
NHL · Shot Surge
Jason Robertson: 4.8 shots a game over his last 5
Blues at Stars · Puck drop 9:00 PM EDT
Up from 3.7 across 87 games, with 4.3 more minutes a night. A shot line built on the long average is behind him.
| Measure | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4.8 SOG | Shots on goal per game |
| Since Sep 2025 | 3.7 SOG | Shots on goal per game · 87 games |
Sample: Last 5 games vs since Sep 2025.
Early-season windows can include 2025-26 games. Deployment can change nightly.
Slatery NHL player-form report · source slate 2026-10-02. Open the full NHL report
NHL · Pp Mismatch
Golden Knights power play (22.2%) vs a 64.4% kill
Ducks at Golden Knights · Puck drop 10:00 PM EDT
League norms sit near 21% on the power play and 79% on the kill. This one is hot on one side and leaky on the other.
| Measure | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Golden Knights power play | 22.2% | Conversion rate · last 20 games |
| Ducks penalty kill | 64.4% | Kill rate · last 20 games |
Sample: Last 20 team games.
Last-20 samples can include 2025-26 games. Penalty counts swing nightly.
Slatery NHL special-teams report · source slate 2026-10-02. Open the full NHL report
NHL · Pp Mismatch
Rangers power play (26.8%) vs a 72.7% kill
Rangers at Red Wings · Puck drop 6:30 PM EDT
League norms sit near 21% on the power play and 79% on the kill. This one is hot on one side and leaky on the other.
| Measure | Number | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers power play | 26.8% | Conversion rate · last 20 games |
| Red Wings penalty kill | 72.7% | Kill rate · last 20 games |
Sample: Last 20 team games.
Last-20 samples can include 2025-26 games. Penalty counts swing nightly.
Slatery NHL special-teams report · source slate 2026-10-02. Open the full NHL report
How the sheet is built
Shot surges need both more shots and more ice time over the last five games, so a lucky week on a fourth line doesn't qualify. Rest spots compare a team on the second night of a back-to-back with an opponent coming off three or more days off. Special-teams notes use each team's last 20 games against league norms of roughly 21% on the power play and 79% on the kill.
Early in the season, these windows still include 2025-26 games. Each observation keeps its original numbers and source date; earlier observations stay readable after puck drop as a record of the pregame research, not live updates.
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